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Pascal's wager, set out by the 17th-century French thinker Blaise Pascal, argues that believing in God is the rational bet: if God exists the believer gains infinitely, and if not, little is lost.

Philosophy

PhilosophyReligion & Belief

The story behind the card

Blaise Pascal (1623–1662) was a mathematician and physicist who, with Pierre de Fermat, laid the foundations of probability theory; he also built one of the first mechanical calculators. In later life he turned to religion and began notes for a defence of Christianity. He died before finishing it, and the notes were published in 1670 as the Pensées (“Thoughts”). The wager is not a proof that God exists. It is a decision argument: when reason cannot settle a question, weigh the possible gains and losses of each choice. For that reason it is often described as the first use of decision theory. Critics objected that many religions make similar promises, so the bet does not say which god to back, and that belief cannot simply be chosen. Pascal's answer was to act as believers do until belief follows.

Türkçe oku
“Pascal'ın bahsi”ne göre Tanrı'ya inanmak akıllıca bir bahistir: Tanrı varsa inanan sonsuz bir kazanç elde eder, yoksa pek bir şey kaybetmez. Bu akıl yürütmeyi 17. yüzyılda Fransız düşünür Blaise Pascal ortaya koydu.

Blaise Pascal (1623–1662), Pierre de Fermat ile birlikte olasılık kuramının temellerini atan bir matematikçi ve fizikçiydi; ilk mekanik hesap makinelerinden birini de o yaptı. Hayatının son yıllarında kendini dine verdi ve Hristiyanlığı savunacak bir kitap için notlar almaya başladı. Kitabı bitiremeden öldü; notları 1670'te Düşünceler (Pensées) adıyla yayımlandı. Türkçede “Pascal'ın kumarı” diye de bilinen bahis, Tanrı'nın var olduğunu kanıtlamaya çalışmaz. Bir karar verme yöntemidir: Akıl bir soruyu çözemiyorsa, her seçeneğin olası kazancı ve kaybı tartılır. Bu yüzden karar kuramının ilk örneği sayılır. Eleştirmenler, pek çok dinin benzer vaatlerde bulunduğunu, bu yüzden bahsin hangi tanrıya oynanacağını söylemediğini ve insanın inanmaya öylece karar veremeyeceğini öne sürdü. Pascal'ın yanıtı, inanç gelene dek inananlar gibi yaşamaktı.

Sources and further reading

Background reading: Pascal's wager
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